Free Race Programs and Past Performances: 2011

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Horse Racing Handicapping Betting and Picking Winners

Whether you're one of the old sweats who has been playing the ponies since Seabiscuit was a foal or a neophyte who wouldn't know a trifecta from a pick six, there is always a little something you can learn from talking with other horse players. I find that some of the most unlikely ideas come from the most, well, the most unlikely sources. Though something may sound like absolute hogwash when you first hear it, I think it is good to keep an open mind and see what you can observe after someone touts a horse racing system or angle.

There is one caveat I'd like to present, though, right off the bat, or out of the gate. Just because something worked when you checked it, don't expect it to work again or to be profitable over time. This universe has a funny old sense of humor and seems to get more than its fair share of humor by playing tricks on people who work hard to make money betting on horses.

For one thing, there really is such a thing as beginner's luck. I've seen it happen many times. Should you take a beginner to the race track and bet what he or she picks? Absolutely not. It is called beginner's luck because it is for the beginner, not you. If you go messing around with it, you'll spoil the whole deal. Let the beginner have a good time and enjoy a lucky day at the track. Trust me, if he or she goes back expecting the same kind of easy pickings, the universe will exact its revenge.

I've heard some crazy ideas over the years and have looked at the races for the next few days to see if they were based on truth and sure enough, they seemed to show a profit. Then I lay my money down and guess what? Everything is changed. It is like the cosmic joker waits for old Peterson to get the granny knot out of his hanky so he can extract a few nickels and plunk them down on the latest brainstorm only to throw the old switch and turn it all off.

It is sad but true that some poor folks have even been lured into cashing out their homes and life savings only to play a sure fire system that they had thoroughly tested over months or even years only to see their dreams dissolve like the morning mist over a training track.

That brings me to this final bit of wisdom that I'd like to share with every horse player in the world, though some of you already know it. Almost anything will work some of the time, but nothing works all the time.

That means you need to pay attention and watch for changing trends and streaks because horse racing handicapping and betting is a constantly changing game.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Jockey Changes Can Signal a Change in the Horse for Smart Handicappers

By Bill Peterson

The most significant piece of equipment any race horse carries is the jockey. Blinkers and tongue ties may make a big difference, but when it is all said and done, the rider who pilots the horse and makes crucial decisions in a split second is the biggest key to success. Most past performances list equipment changes, though they still don't tell us about tongue ties, but which one notes a change in rider? You have to look for those yourself.

When a different jockey will be in the irons the astute handicapper makes a note of it and tries to figure out what that means to the performance of the horse and the sharpest horse players know it isn't all about jockey win percentages. There may be many reasons for a change and the most significant one is that the horse may have improved or declined since its last race.

That is what you really need to think about and question when you see the regular rider is off. The first thing to check is whether that new rider is one of the trainer's go-to riders. If a generic reinsman gets off and a rider with a high win percent for that conditioner gets on, that is a very positive sign. Does it signal an instant win? Certainly not.

There may be several reasons why a trainer will ask his or her favorite jock to get on a horse. Maybe the conditioner wants the rider's opinion about the animal or wants to try something different. It may also mean that the former rider decided he or she had enough and there is another mount that has a better chance of winning that is available. I think the best way to describe the often baffling business of musical riders is that there are wheels within wheels and you may never be able to figure out just why the rider switch occurred.

One way to find a clue as to the jockey switch is to check the recent works. Do you see an improvement? Is there an equipment change today? Let's say the trainer tried blinkers on the horse and got a much better workout time from it, that may be why a better jockey has been given the mount today.

If there is a suspicious lack of workouts, however, and a leading rider gets off the horse, it may signal a decline or even a physical problem such as lameness. If you are of a conspiratorial mindset, you might suspect that a lesser known jockey will keep the odds higher on the horse and that is why a no-name jockey has climbed aboard, but in my experience, things are seldom that murky in the world of training horses. The conditioners are pretty straightforward with their moves and if you take the time to learn a little about horse training, you'll usually be able to figure out the reasons for equipment changes or jockey switches.

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How to Organize Your Thinking for Horse Racing Handicapping Success

By Bill Peterson

One of the problems we handicappers face when we're looking for good bets is keeping our thoughts organized so that we can make good decisions. Picking winners and making money from our bets is all about how well we make complicated judgments. That being said, the more we can simplify and arrange our thinking the better we will perform.

Do you have a regular handicapping routine? If not, consider starting one and doing your horse racing handicapping in an orderly and systematic way. Start with steps and make each step lead in chronological and hierarchical order to the next step. The final step, of course, is determining if the odds being offered are fair value odds and you should bet.

The way you get there can be your own private method as long as you operate the same way each time so your system becomes a habit. I think it all starts with how you care for yourself. Get enough sleep the night before you play the races. A little exercise, such as a twenty minute walk, if that is possible, is good, too, because it stimulates blood flow and facilitates thinking. It also relaxes and that is something we can all use more of.

The next step is how you collect the data you use and what source(s) of information you use. If you use one or two suppliers of past performances and always use the same sheets, you'll be familiar with their data and also find your way around much easier. You should always use the most accurate information you can find and finding the past performances that suit your own style is a must.

We each have body rhythms that dictate when our minds are the sharpest and we have the most energy and insight. Some people are morning people and others are afternoon people or even night owls. It doesn't matter which kind you are as long as you respect that biological clock and handicap when you're at your best. Try to always handicap at the same time so you get used to the routine and concentrating as deeply as you can.

First start by scanning the races and noting which ones are the kind you play. If you play only maidens, then find them and mark them. Start by eliminating races based on whatever criteria you use to find playable races. Then start the actual evaluation of each race by boiling the numbers down, finding speed figure averages, class, etc. Put the horses into a hierarchy based on each ones speed, class, connections, etc.

By the time you are done that actual evaluation should be pretty straightforward and just a matter of comparing the numbers and relating that to the probability of a win.

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Using Trainer Moves and Habits to Handicap Horse Races and Find Winners

By Bill Peterson

Horse racing winners come in all kinds of shapes and sizes, well at least the trainers who win do. They may use many different paths to get to the winners circle, but one thing they all have in common is that they beat every other trainer's horse in the race. You may have a hall of fame trainer whose horse gets beaten by a trainer who wins at a dismal 7% rate, but in that particular race, the low percentage trainer came out on top.

While betting trainers who rarely win may not be a sound financial strategy, unless their winners pay very big mutuels, it is important to note that all trainers, sooner or later, make it to the winners circle. Your ability to make money by betting on horse races will relate directly to how well you equate a horse, and consequently its trainer's ability to win a race, to the odds being offered. That, in a nutshell, is the whole profit equation in horse racing betting.

Successful, high profile trainers rarely produce profitable bets when you back all their runners. You have to find the right horse in the right situation, just as in any handicapping situation. The suppliers of past performances often supply the win percentage and ROI (return on investment) for obvious trainer moves such as blinkers on, second race off the layoff, drop in class.

While this information is helpful, I've rarely made money when trying to stick to what they tout as profitable trainer moves. Why is that? Because once it is touted, when the stable cat is out of the bag, so to speak, handicappers bet the daylights out of it and it no longer makes money. Therefore, the idea of playing trainer moves to make money only really becomes a profitable one if you can get the right odds on a horse, or better yet, if you can find trainer moves that have surfaced yet.

That is obviously just about impossible unless you know the trainer and he or she tells you that something new is in the works. Therefore, from a handicapping and profit stand point, the best trainer moves are new ones, not the habitual ones that everybody and his brother or sister knows about. Your job as a handicapper isn't to look for old trainer moves and then to bet them when they show a positive ROI.

What you really should be doing is to find a trainer who is trying something different. He or she may or may not be successful at it, but if he or she has had success in the past then there may be a way to make this new move work and you will be in on the ground floor. You'll have o dig to find these moves, though, because they won't be neatly listed in the form with a win percentage and ROI figure beside them.

The way to do this is to familiarize yourself with a few young-ish trainers and watch them closely. When you see one doing something he or she hasn't tried or has done only once in a long while, then see if you can get decent odds on the horse and if through your handicapping you can see any way for the runner to win. Outside the box is where you will find the big payoffs and the next profitable trainer moves. As for trainer habits that were profitable in the past, drop them like a... well, like a bad habit.

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